News 19 April 2005
Sedgefield Election Pointers
In the absence of local opinion polls, predicting the outcome of voting in Sedgefield is, of course, hazardous.
No sensible comparisons can be made with Tatton where a Constituency poll conducted about two weeks before the 1997 election put Martin Bell 11% ahead of Neil Hamilton.
After all, in Tatton, both Labour and the LibDems had stood down thus unifying the opposition to Neil Hamilton.
A more recent election result might provide anti-war candidates with greater substance for optimism.
In 2001 Dr Richard Taylor took 58.1% of the vote in the constituency of Wyre Forest. Labour and the Conservatives mustered only about a 20% each.
Dr Taylor was also standing on a single issue: the plight of Kidderminster Hospital where he was a consultant.
The most relevant polls at this stage in determining what might happen in Sedgefield are those that involve questions relating to Tony Blair.
It's a complicated picture. Taking as the first step, Tony Blair's approval rating, there appears to be nothing conclusive.
At first glance it looks as if Tony Blair's approval rating has gone up in the last month. He achieves much better results in the YouGov poll on 9 April than the MORI poll on 22 March. But this is not comparing like for like, as can be seen from the third result in the table showing a March YouGov result showing Blair's popularity exactly the same as the April data.
Perhaps of more interest is the public's opinions on Iraq. Here we can see a consistently poor showing by Tony Blair.
At the last election Tony Blair's majority declined roughly in line with the Labour Party's performance generally - from around 25,000 to just under 18,000. But that decline disguises the fact that he still polled three times as many votes as his nearest rival (the Conservatives).
One key factor will be the turnout. Only 62% of Sedgefield constituents voted at the last election. Independent candidates can hope to gain votes from those who were previously too disenchanted with the candidates on offer to make a positive vote.
Independents gained about 5% of the vote mainly via UKIP, with Helen John, who is set to stand again gaining just 260 votes, however the nature of the campaign has changed with the developments in Iraq.
All candidate nominations had to be in by today. If when election day comes the roster of candidates remains as extensive as it is today then a curious posssibility is a significant down-turn in Blair's share of the vote without the margin of his victory in pure numbers being significantly affected.
Having said that the bookmakers are definitely expecting a decline in Blair's majority, with Skybet offering a paltry 1/3 on Blair's majority to decrease.
This page is part of our Sedgefield 2005 section.